![]() ![]() Run a completely new scheme, offensive or defensive, that’ll rattle the rest of college football. If Nebraska football, say, really wanted to pursue something that might change the game for them-play every chip to pry Nick Saban out of Alabama, Bill Belichick out of New England, or find the next Great Coach to run the show in Lincoln. But the objective is to make the advantage stand for a while, long enough to hold a real edge. Strategists want last mover advantage, to hold that last move and use it to clean up with a durably dominant play. Why would anyone want to make a move when they know it can be matched by the next party? Strategists don’t care much for first mover advantage. First mover advantage is almost always perishable (in this case, it’s guaranteed). However, to invest heavily and expect the first mover advantage will pay off here in any lasting way is lunacy.įirst mover advantage makes you a target. In fact, it makes some sense to do what Nebraska is doing. Is this to argue Nebraska should never have moved on NIL? No. (Better invest in sports psychologists to hedge against that unintended consequence.) That’s more likely to fracture teams into a lot of have-nots and a few haves. At least some, likely very few will make real money, so what you’ll end up with is administrators, staff, and athletic directors putting in a full-court press effort and only a handful of athletes will get extra for all this hullabaloo. Wouldn’t be very revolutionary, would it? Legalization of an activity spurs speedy adoption. To clarify, imagine a business that puts serious cash into being one of the first six recreational marijuana shops on Main Street in Lincoln, Nebraska. ![]() Nebraska will rush out front with at least five other states alongside them (and forty-four more not far behind). It is clear from the starter’s pistol that Nebraska’s speedy NIL move is doomed to be perishable. In Nebraska’s case, I question the first proposition. Some edges might appear unrealistic but may be closer to fruition than they appear. ![]() Some edges look promising but won’t ever pan out. There’s two test questions strategists should always ask themselves: (A) Can this action change the game ?, and (B), Based on how likely that change is, how much should I invest to make this a durable advantage? The University of Nebraska’s pursuit of momentary advantage is an opportunity cost that’ll keep them from greater gains. The real problem with Nebraska’s full-on embrace and investment in the new NIL standard is that being first to a new standard isn’t a sustainable edge. Think back on so many “first mover” advantages that were quickly countered, co-opted, or negated: aerial bombardment, gas attack, submarine warfare, rockets, fortifications, nukes… As Confederate (degenerate) Nathan Bedford Forrest supposedly advised, it’s always good to “get there firstest with the mostest.”īut would anyone say weightlifting in sports was a durable advantage? Or life-skills courses? The forward pass was first tried in a college game in 1906, and by the next year Pop Warner’s Carlisle (Pennsylvania) Indian Industrial School had fully integrated it into the offense (well before the popular myth that Notre Dame “invented” the forward pass). “We’ll do it better than anybody,” according to Moos, and a recent Wall Street Journal article by Laine Higgins mentions Nebraska being an early adopter at incorporating weight training in the 1970s and life-skills classes in the 1980s. Moos was fired up about Nebraska’s “ Ready Now ” initiative that’s intended to help its athletes connect with brands, take a 1-credit course in entrepreneurship, and expand existing life-skills programs. “When the guns fire to start the race,” University of Nebraska athletic director Bill Moos says, “we’ll be on the blocks.” He was referring to the July 1st rule change in Nebraska (and at least five other states) that allows college athletes to cash-in on their names, images, and likenesses (shorthand: “NIL”).
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